Salisbury, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

263
FXUS61 KAKQ 031701
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1201 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The cold pattern continues into this weekend with most of the region
remaining dry. A few light showers are possible Thursday
morning across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. Otherwise,
remaining dry through this weekend with rain chances arriving
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Cold and dry again today/tonight.

The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level trough across
eastern North America, with low pressure across Atlantic
Canada, and a weaker sfc low analyzed across SC. This weaker
system to our S is associated with shortwave energy passing by
to our S. Locally, some mid level clouds are pushing through the
region, but all precip remains S of the CWA. Upstream, strong
sfc high pressure (1035mb+) is centered from the central/northern
Plains to the mid MS Valley. This shortwave will push to the NC
coast and move offshore after 12Z/7am. Partly to mostly cloudy
conditions across southern VA and NE NC will persist for a few
more hrs, before clearing around sunrise. Temperatures have
risen a few degrees over the past few hrs with these clouds, but
may drop off as we approach sunrise, with lows from the upper
teens to lower 20s inland (locally warmer in urban areas) and
20s to around 30F along the coast.

Cold, dry weather continues today, despite a mainly sunny sky
after any clouds early. It will be somewhat breezy with gusts to
15-20mph through mid aftn since the sfc high will remain well
off to our W today. Highs will range from around 40F across the
NW to the low-mid 40s elsewhere (about 10-15F below normal).
High pressure builds in later tonight, bringing diminishing
winds and a clear sky. It may stay mixed enough across the
eastern 1/2 of the CWA to keep lows slightly warmer, but
nevertheless, lows will be very cold, generally in the upper
teens to lower 20s, with mid- upper 20s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Moderating temperatures Wednesday-early Thursday, turning
  sharply colder and blustery later Thursday.

- SW winds become breezy Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night,
  shifting to the WNW and remaining strong and gusty Thursday.

- A few light rain showers are possible across the Northern
  Neck and Eastern Shore Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

High pressure slides off the Southeast coast on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a strong clipper system quickly moves across the
Great Lakes and into New England Wednesday night into Thursday.
While this system remains far enough N where most impacts remain
outside of the FA, the pressure gradient tightens between that
low and a strong area of high pressure building in from the SW
behind it. This will allow for winds to become SW and breezy
with gusts up to 20- 25 mph Wednesday afternoon. Slightly
warmer Wed with highs in the mid-upper 40s. SW winds remain
breezy overnight Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold
front, keeping lows milder, generally from the mid 30s to near
40F.

The latest model trends are for a slightly faster frontal
passage Thursday, perhaps enough to see a chc for rain showers
mixing with or ending as snow showers across the northern
Neck/eastern shore late Thursday morning. This system will still
be moisture starved (any QPF would be a trace to a few
hundredths). BUFKIT soundings show only a brief period where
there could be saturation above -10C for ice in the clouds and
anything more than sprinkles or flurries. Will maintain a slight
chc for rain showers early Thu to metro RIC, with any rain/snow
showers confined to the northern Neck and eastern shore by late
morning, ending after early aftn. The bigger story with this
system will be the winds, increasing behind the cold front
passage with gusts up to 30-40 mph, highest across the Eastern
Shore. Given the slightly earlier FROPA, highs Thu have trended
a bit cooler with temps now expected to rise only into the low-
mid 40s NW to the low-mid 50s NE NC, with temps likely to drop
during the aftn. Very cold air filters in Thursday night with
lows in the upper teens to lower 20s inland and mid- upper 20s
along the coast. Will note that winds are not expected to be
calm Thursday night with wind chills dropping into the teens
across the area, perhaps close to 10F inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures remain cold Friday-Sat, a gradual warmup Sunday
  into Monday.

- Rain chances increase by early next week.

Model consensus places strong sfc high pressure (~1035mb) in
the vicinity of the mid-MS Valley Friday morning, with intense
low pressure (<975mb) moving N through Atlantic Canada. While
less windy compared to Thursday, the pressure gradient will keep
breezy conditions going, especially for the eastern shore
(gusting to ~30 mph). Highs will only be into the lower 40s for
most, possibly struggling to get out of the upper 30s for
northern zones). Mostly sunny, but there will tend to be some
aftn clouds. especially across the NE as reinforcing shortwave
dives SE through the base of the upper trough. The sfc high
pressure builds E-SE Fri night into Sat, reaching closer to the
area for light winds and a mainly clear sky with another cold
night (lows 15-20F well inland and ranging through the 20s along
the coast). Latest LREF ensembles show some model spread, the
GEFS being faster and farther N and bringing the sfc high into
the area early Sat, while the ENS and GEPS are slower and
farther south. Towards the end of the weekend into early next
week, the GFS/GEFS suggest rain would be likely by Monday while
the other models keep things drier with stronger upper level
ridging across the SE CONUS. Will maintain a chance for showers
in the forecast Monday but will keep PoPs at or below 50% given
the model spread. Sunday turns milder with highs into the upper
40s to mid 50s, with highs Monday well into the 50s and perhaps
into the 60s if the ECMWF verifies.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions across all local terminals with mostly sunny skies.
Winds are NW 8-11 kt with gusts up to 18 kt at SBY and ORF.  Winds
will decrease around sunset and will calm out at most sites
overnight, picking back up from the SW around 3-6 kt near sunrise
(~12z/04) shifting as high pressure moves offshore the SE coast. VIS
and CIGs will remain in VFR conditions for the 18z/03 TAF period. A
cold front will move through the area Thursday, bringing potential
gusts up to 25-35 kt, with the Eastern Shore potentially reaching
gusts up to 45 kt.

Outlook: Behind the cold front Thursday, VFR conditions are expected
for the weekend. Rain chances Monday and Tuesday could result in
degraded flight categories.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- Marginal Small Craft conditions are possible across portions of
the Chesapeake Bay today.

- Much stronger winds are expected Wednesday night through Thursday
night in advance of and following a cold front. A long duration
period of sustained winds in excess of 25 kt with gusts in excess of
35 kt are likely for most of the area. Gale Watches remain in effect
for the Bay and coastal waters and have been added for the lower
James River and Currituck Sound.

Morning analysis shows strong (1036mb) surface high pressure over
the central CONUS as a trough aloft over New England moves away into
the Atlantic. NW winds on the western periphery of high pressure is
leading to winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt over the Ches Bay and
Atlantic coastal waters. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft with seas
averaging 2-3 ft offshore.

Winds will hover near SCA thresholds today over portions of the Ches
Bay but recent hi-res guidance keeps winds just below criteria.
However, a short-fused SCA may be required if winds are even a tad
higher than currently forecast. High pressure builds toward the
region tonight and should make its closest approach around sunrise
on Wednesday, leading to a period where winds fall back to 5-10 kt.
Thereafter, high pressure is shunted to the S and SE ahead of strong
low pressure developing across the Great Lakes. The gradient
tightens considerably by late Wednesday afternoon with SW winds
increasing to 20-30 kt by the evening hours and 25-35 kt after
midnight. Wind probs continue to show a high probability of gale
conditions across the region Wednesday night through Thursday with
winds gradually becoming W and NW Thursday afternoon. Gusts will
likely exceed 40 kt for a substantial period of time over the
Atlantic coastal waters from late Wed evening through early Thursday
afternoon. Opted to add the lower James River and the Currituck
Sound to the ongoing Gale Watch. Confidence in gale conditions is
somewhat lower for the upper rivers but with a pressure fall/rise
couplet of 7-10mb/6hrs on both sides of the cold frontal passage,
suspect these waters will be added to the gale headlines in
subsequent forecasts. Winds are forecast to decrease later Thursday
afternoon into the evening but are expected to remain above SCA
thresholds through most of Friday before high pressure builds toward
the area and relaxes the pressure gradient.

Seas are forecast to build to 6-10 ft N and 4-7 ft S, with 3-5 ft
waves expected in the Ches Bay late Wednesday through Thursday.
Waves/seas will decrease on Friday but seas offshore likely remain
near/above 5 ft into early Friday evening.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the strong SW winds expected Wed night into Thurs morning,
there is increasing potential for blow out tides during the low tide
cycle early Thursday. Guidance has many lower bay sites and some
ocean sites dropping to at least -1.0 ft MLLW. These low water
levels could impact navigation in some areas Thu.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ630.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for
     ANZ630>634-638-654-656-658.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night
     for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...